Thursday, June 2, 2016

Update - Manila Major Betting Tips

Manila Major Betting Tips

Welcome all to my Manila Major betting guide. This guide takes a few liberal assumptions with it’s readers, that you are familiar with the general concept of gambling, what e sports and Dota 2 are and you have a burning desire to gamble some of your hard earned cash or rares on the upcoming Manila Major with the hopes of retiring to some tropical island paradise atop a pile of hats and gold doubloons, like a mordern day Scrooge McDuck. So to help you out we’ve some predictions from the first two days play and some insight on how the tournament may progress

As examples of odds we’ll be using real money betting sites, we’ve found in the past year especially major betting sites have been trying to get into the e sports market which has led to them offering greatly expanded markets, and sometimes pretty decent odds. Two I’ve used are & , Don’t worry this isn’t some paid advertisement (unfortunatley, i could use the money for more bets!) these are just two sites we use, and will be taking examples of odds from them in this piece.

From experience I personally believe the best time to make profitable bets is earlier in Dota 2 tournaments, group stages especially. Noticing a team playing much better than expected and following their form, think MVP at Shanghai, can lead to some great odds, or just backing the team you expect to dominate early before everyone else jumps on the bandwagon driving the odds down. Odds for favourites in individual matches can be quite low so picking a nice double or treble can really up your winnings in games where a certain outcome is more anticipated, just be careful not to push it too far or combine too many bets, the more matches you place in a single bet the more likely that bet is to go wrong, that’s why you got such good odds. These are high quality teams playing at the top level so there is likely to be an upset or two.. But if you can call when that upset will happen…

Outright Winner
Let us get straight to the good stuff, who will win the Manila Major? Team Liquid. Okay you probably expected some long winded build up or a vague maybe this if this happens but that if that happens but no, there it is, putting it out there. Why? Consistency, Steady Improvement, Since their formation they’ve become stronger with each tournament. PP is offering odds of 7/2 for Liquid to win outright, which isn’t great considering you could have had them at 5/1 with them two days ago, B365 offer slightly better chances at 9/2. This large drop in price is a telltale sign an awful lot of people fancy Liquid at Manila, but of course there are some other teams in with a great chance. 

A lot is also expected from another european team, OG, perhaps a little hit and miss since Frankfurt last year, there is no denying the talent , oh the talent, on display, and they should definitely go far in the tournament, I just see them having problems, as they have done recently, against the bigger teams, and while their group isn’t terrible, Newbee is a daunting task. OG are 9/2 joint favourites at B365, but you can get 6/1 over at PP, if you’re that way inclined. 

I actually think Newbee will Win group A, but we’ll get to that later, as an outright bet , 6/1 PP 5/1 B365, they’re not bad considering their recent streak, despite being ended they’ve bounced back since with some nice wins, but their strategies have had holes poked in them for the last few tournaments and i think the big teams have figured out a lot of what Newbee have to offer. 

Groups & First Two Days Matches 

Group A  
Newbee Vs Complexity 
With Newbee only 1 /4 at PP and 2/9 at B365 the obvious choice is not a profitable one. 

OG Vs Empire
Same here with OG at 2/9 with PP and 1/ 4. 
Doing a Double, both teams to win, is the logical choice, even with odds of only 1 /2 backing this should be a nice easy win to build up your stack for later in the tournament. 

As for the overall winner of Group A i think it’s very likely that’ll come down to a game between OG and Newbee, with OG fancied by the bookies, 11/10 at PP and 1/1 at B365 and Newbee 5/4 & 11/8 respectively, It’s a risky bet but I think Newbee are worth a small bet here. 

The Bottom two match up of complexity & empire will be tight, seeing how both teams fair against their opponents the first day will tell a lot. Complexity may have the experience but they’ve not been playing great of late, keep an eye out for Empires odds if they put up a good fight Vs OG. 

Group B
In My opinion the toughest group to pick results in. And possibly the most exciting to watch as a spectator. 

You’ve got Wings a team playing extremely well in China and most likely to win this group, who at the same time can be very unpredictable, then you also have DC, a bit of an unknown element, hasn’t really been tested much against this level of competition but their players will obviously have a lot to prove considering the teams in the group. 

Of Course Team Secret… what can be said, so much talent, so little results, still not to be discounted. IF they played to their full potential could no doubt win the tournament, but that’s a big if looking at recent results since the roster change, despite still having 3 players who’ve been in the last two major finals (winning one), perhaps puppey will flick a switch and all will be fixed in time for manila? Navi are somewhat similar, though opposite, they’ve actually improved since their roster change, it’s unlikely they’re quite up to the level of the other teams in this tournament and while their recent forms been good it's been against teams who’ve been alot worse then their competition at this tournament. 

Wings Vs DC
Wings are not a bad price at 1/ 2 (PP) or 4/9(B365) , or you could throw them into the previous double giving treble odds of 6/5 although as mentioned the more teams the more risk, a single bet is preferred here. 

Secret Vs Navi 
Tough to call given both teams changing form of late, great odds available to either team 4/7 for Secret , 6/5 Navi. Would recommend avoiding , but paying close attention too, this one. If you see Secret back to once upon a time form (or Navi for that matter) they’ll be worth backing in future matches. 

Group C
Liquid, to win both their games and the group. 

No offence to [A] but they’re not back so I think it’ll be VGR with their impressive results in China are the ones to watch for second place. Liquid 11/10 to win their group, Highly recommend this bet. 

Liquid Vs [A
Again, Liquid to win, but at 2/9 it’s not a great return, back liquid to win the group instead. 

VGR Vs Fnatic
Though there is always something to be said for home turf advantage I see VGR taking this one and they’re a great price at 4/6(PP) . Though Fnatic will be motivated they just haven't seemed to be competing at a high enough level lately to match up with some of the competition they face. Could be a nice bet against [A] in the losers play-off tho, depending on performance tomorrow. 

Group D
LGD are Favourites to win the group, I’ve always found them to be a team of great potential who do well in early tournaments but fall off later on, they’re 1/ 2 Vs MVP and 10/11 to Win the group, both good bets i’d recommend 1 /2 Vs MVP but think there may be a better option for group winner. IF you’re looking for a bit of a gamble, and after playing it safe for the last 3 groups you may just be itching for one. 

So here it goes, EG 5/2 to win the group, they’re massive 1 /6 favourite to beat mineski so if they win you’ve basically got a 5/2 shot up against LGD, most likely, which will be much better than the single win options on they day making this a nice mix of gamble & value. Despite EG’s results since roster change , they haven’t played much but they have 4 Ti5 winners on their team and are well worth a punt. 

Lgd at 1 /2, could be a safe bet to win the group but there’s better value in EG. 

EG Vs Mineski
EG are terrible odds to in this match but as stated good odds to win the group, though risky! 

Most Recommended 
Bets Liquid To Win Outright 9/2 
Liquid to win Group B 11/10 
OG & Newbie Double 1/ 2 
Wings 4/9 
VGR 4/6 
EG to win group D 5/2 

Risky Business
OG, Newbee & Wings 6/5 
VGR & LGD 6/4 

Well I hope we’ve been of some help when deciding what to do with those hard earned monies of yours. The plan is to release a few more of these during the major and hopefully give some good advice and maybe even beat the bookies a few times. No matter what, remember to only bet money you can afford to lose and to enjoy the games. Good Luck & Happy Hunting

© Rosinante

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